Non-communicable diseases reach epidemic levels

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the largest global health threat to the future of human wellbeing.

NCDs—including heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are now reaching epidemic levels in the developing world. According to recent estimates, a staggering 34.5 million people died from NCDs in 2010, 65% of the 52.8 million deaths worldwide that year. By 2030, NCDs are expected to claim more than 50 million lives every year.

The global economic burden of NCDs was estimated at US$6·3 trillion in 2010, rising to $13 trillion in 2030. The predicted cumulative global loss of economic output due to NCDs for 2011–30 is estimated at $46·7 trillion, with around half ($21·3 trillion) in low-income and middle-income countries.

In response, The Lancet has today launched a new series presenting the results from eminent scientists around the world on cost-effective interventions that might help the international community meet the target set last May, by the World Health Assembly of a 25% reduction in preventable NCD deaths by 2025 (the 25 by 25 goal). 

In the first Series paper, researchers led by Sir George Alleyne, Emeritus Director of the Pan American Health Organization, Washington, USA outline the case for making NCDs central to the post-2015 development agenda and the new development goals being devised over the next 2 years by governments and the United Nations.

In the second Series paper, researchers led by Professor Ruth Bonita from the University of Auckland in New Zealand outline how to implement measures to control tobacco use, reduce levels of salt intake (to reduce blood pressure) across the whole population, and provide appropriate drug treatment for all people who have had a heart attack or stroke or who are at high risk of one. These interventions could cost governments in the poorest nations as little as US$1·00–$2·00 per head and significantly reduce deaths and disability from NCDs in all countries.

In the third Series paper, an international team led by Professor Majid Ezzati from Imperial College London, UK show that efforts to tackle NCDs will only succeed with a focus on both the health of the most disadvantaged people within societies, who disproportionately contribute to the overall burden of NCDs, and the poorest nations where deaths from NCDs and many NCD risk factors are highest.

The fourth paper from the University of Melbourne, argued that self-regulation of the food and drinks industry is not the answer. The authors argued that these industries should have no role in the formation of national or international policy on NCDs.

In the fifth Series paper, researchers led by Professor Hans Hogerzeil from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands say that most NCDs could be treated with a small range of inexpensive, off-patent medicines, and suggest that substantial improvements in availability of life-saving drugs in poorer nations could be achieved within existing budgets by more careful selection and sourcing of generic versions, and better targeting of people at highest risk.

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